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Experts say India may create ‘new’ border conflict to shift attention from worsening conditions
India may create ‘new’ border conflict to shift attention from worsening conditions Experts say India may create ‘new’ border conflict to shift attention from worsening conditions
BEIJING: Despite China and India having channels to discuss disengagement in remaining regions, China should beware of ‘nationalistic’ manipulation in India, following media concerns over the China-India border issue a year after the Galwan Valley clash, experts said.
On June 15 last year, the border spat between China and India turned into the first deadly military clash between the two since 1975, resulting in four Chinese deaths and those of at least 20 soldiers from India. After the ninth round of senior commander-level talks, China and India announced an agreement for disengagement on the north and south bank of Pangong Lake in February.
Qian Feng, director of the Research Department at the National Strategy Institute of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times that most Chinese and Indian soldiers have disengaged. Albeit consensus failed to achieve in the remaining areas (such as the Hot Springs and Depsang Plains), the standoff scale is much smaller with a less significant impact.
In the eleventh round of senior commander-level talks that took place in Ladakh on April 9, senior representatives from the two countries met for 13 hours on the issue of disengagement at the remaining sites. The two countries have been maintaining communication through military and diplomatic channels, said Qian Feng, noting that due to epidemic spike in India, face-to-face talks have been suspended, but the hotline and telephone communications are still available.
Some viewed the current China-India border situation much better than the same period last year. But experts warned that if the remaining stalemate persists, it will be detrimental to military-to-military relations and the stability of the western section of China-India border. Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that if the economy and epidemic continues to worsen in India, New Delhi might start a new conflict on the border.
“India has a political tradition of always looking for border issues to distract attention when there is a crisis at home,” Hu said. “China needs to be very vigilant about this.” Despite a downward trend in the epidemic, the Bharatiya Janata Party led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking more support in local elections, after defeats in crucial states in May.
China’s infrastructure along the border is well built and although there are not many troops on the front line, they can always be reinforced from the second line, Qian said. India;s Minister for External Affairs Subramanyam Jaishankar said in May that India-China relations were at a crossroads, and they cannot think of cooperating with China in other areas as long as border tensions continue.
